This year’s election is unusually difficult to predict because of shifting alliances in Kenyan politics, and the emerging co-operation between established dynasties – highlighted by the President’s choice of a former rival as his successor and not his own deputy president.

The election will test the new voter registration programme, and its susceptibility to abuse. Social media make it easier for factions to spread rumours or misinformation, and to mobilise support, helping normalise expectations and tolerance for violence and unrest.

The combination of these and other factors points to an unpredictable, and potentially unstable, security environment in the country throughout the campaign – and after.